NEW DELHI, July 24 (Xinhua) -- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government may have comfortably survived last week's no-confidence motion in the Parliament, but its real acid test will be the upcoming assembly polls in three states ahead of next year's general elections.
The central Indian states of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and the western state of Rajasthan -- all ruled by the country's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) -- will go to polls later this year, while the general elections are due in May next year.
The BJP has already sounded the poll bugle in these states, with party workers resorting to even door-to-door meetings with the electorates to list out the achievements of both the state and the central governments.
"The BJP is the ruling party in all the three states. Thus, maintaining the successive streak is of extreme significance for the party. While the BJP has won elections in states like Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, its inability to get majority mark in southern state of Karnataka was a setback," said S.K. Gupta, a retired political science professor of Delhi University.
Many believe that the BJP that was once riding high on the Modi wave even after the twin policies of demonetisation of currency notes of higher denomination and goods and services tax (a uniform tax structure) could be suffering a fall in its popularity.
"Therefore, the upcoming three state polls could be at the forefront of deciding the party's success in Mission 2019," Prof Gupta added.
However, there are many challenges facing the BJP and the main opposition Congress party in these three states. Ruling Madhya Pradesh for 15 years now, the BJP is actually highlighting its development policies and opportunities given to farmers which have made it a state that boasts of highest agricultural growth in India.
"No doubt that under Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan's leadership, the state has witnessed a significant change. Madhya Pradesh has recorded the second-fastest gross domestic product growth in India after Modi's homestate of Gujarat in the past five years. Here the party is showcasing the development done in the state," says political commentator Ajay Singh.
Similarly, in neighboring Chhattisgarh, the BJP is cashing in on work done in villages that the party claims has led to good governance and a drop in left-wing Naxalite violence.
Chief Minister Raman Singh has been leading the BJP in the state since 2003. However, recent poll surveys have not painted a positive picture for Singh, claiming his chances can be marred by his own three-term incumbency and the Janta Congress Chhattisgarh party that has been formed by former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi, who broke away from the main opposition Congress party.
Both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have been affected by Naxalite violence though the Indian security forces have of late been able to eliminate a number of hardcore rebels and dent their financial backups.
However, it's a different situation in the western state of Rajasthan. Political experts see a dip in the popularity of Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje's regime. Delivering a major blow to the ruling BJP, Congress won the Alwar and Ajmer parliamentary seats in recent bypolls as well as the Mandalgarh assembly.
"This victory has greatly boosted the morale of the Congress party workers who believe that public sentiments have taken a massive turn. Under Raje's government, incidents of mob violence have also increased and this casteist and communal violence has put the state in bad light. Moreover, the popularity of young Congress leader Sachin Pilot has also increased massively and this can actually dent BJP's chances in the assembly polls," said Singh.
"The assembly polls will definitely be a mirror to the general elections in 2019," said Prof Gupta. "While the BJP definitely has an upper hand in at least two of the three states -- Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh -- going to polls later this year, the Congress is surely going to make its presence felt with dedicated work on the ground in the last three years," he added.
Winning in these three states, by going solo or with alliances, are also Congress' gateway to the 2019 general elections. To defeat the BJP, Congress has already announced that it is ready to ally with any "like-minded parties". However, time will tell which way the electorate goes finally and which party has the last laugh.
